Ed A
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Message Posted: Jan 4, 2010 11:50:25 AM
I just initiated the 2010 thread. Happy New Year!
Ed
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HeeHaw21
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Message Posted: Jan 4, 2010 8:04:36 AM
It's not overpriced if people are willing to pay for it.
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Cruiser340
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Message Posted: Jan 4, 2010 7:59:42 AM
I am very happy to say my prediction was a few dollars high for 2009. Thats the good news, the bad is gas and oil are still overpriced, gas by about $1 and oil about $50.
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ServeGod
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Message Posted: Jan 3, 2010 2:14:46 AM
Sorry, no access - got used to typing AXXIS back when we had it.
Back on NYMEX and rack (as shown on your gasgame site) is what I should type in.
At least we predicted it CORRECT for this last week.
I don't see big drops the next few - several days, and only potential for resets or further hikes.
While I was WRONG at Thanksgiving time predict of seeing $2.29 - $2.49 for most of Dec., I was RIGHT that $2.69 was the highest for Dec., and our average came in at $2.569 so that wasn't as bad as we might have had.
However, January is shaping up to keep us near current prices or higher.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Dec 29, 2009 3:17:08 PM
>>>if they don't come back down on AXXIS and NYMEX soon. <<<
AXXIS? You wouldn't have _access_ to that, would you?
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Ed A
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Message Posted: Dec 29, 2009 1:46:59 PM
From our web site: The Gas Game
Comment on the December 15 prediction: Prices re-set that Thursday to $2.55, so the prediction was CORRECT. Two more hikes have followed since.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009, 1:45PM: Well, we got a price hike to $2.69 late yesterday, due to rising wholesale prices the past two weeks. It probably goes hand-in-hand with the stock market hitting highs for the year this week, as energy and stock prices have been in sync for quite a while. This is rather disturbing, though, since retail gas prices tend to bottom out in December, and then climb from January through April. So, does that mean we are heading for $3 gas this winter? I don't know. But stay tuned for further postings on this site. Happy New Year to all our readers!
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Ed A
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Message Posted: Dec 29, 2009 1:44:47 PM
I've got one more posting from our web site for 2009. Then, at the end of the week, I'll start the 2010 thread.
Ed
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ServeGod
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Message Posted: Dec 26, 2009 2:40:54 PM
We did indeed get our pre-Christmas $2.59; we might have $2.64 - $2.69 in a couple days if they don't come back down on AXXIS and NYMEX soon.
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mgmcam
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Message Posted: Dec 24, 2009 10:50:35 AM
I see that Speedway and other have delivered our Christmas presents in the form of higher Gas prices just in time for Christmas.
Merry Christmas to all!!!!!!
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ELHondaVan
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Message Posted: Dec 19, 2009 8:28:36 AM
Morph: please don't abuse yourself.
And it's ELHV, not, ELH, thank you very much (check the avatar picture).
[Edited by: ELHondaVan at 12/19/2009 8:31:49 AM EST]
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ItsMorph
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Message Posted: Dec 19, 2009 12:25:43 AM
ELH: Thank you. And I apologize. Sleep deprivation is not my strong suit, and I should have learned long ago to leave the computer alone when I'm insanely tired. I actually did "Report Abuse" on myself for that post and asked them to remove it. Ask GM. Or Patrick. I dunno if he can look at that, though.
jmk: LOL! Are you back in GR or still in TC?
pdh: I know about the Plainfield one, but could you PM me or something, since I'd like to know about the others. If there's more than one, I'd like to know WHICH ones, since I'm in every area in Michigan, and if there are some that I know I'd like to support more than others when it comes time to a nice lunch break, well, it's not advertising if you tell ME in a private message. :)
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ELHondaVan
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Message Posted: Dec 18, 2009 9:09:35 AM
I predict today's gas price will be ..... 2.55!
[Edited by: ELHondaVan at 12/18/2009 9:09:53 AM EST]
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pdhaudio
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Message Posted: Dec 17, 2009 11:59:50 PM
yes, jmk- you're a pretty funny guy :D
So glad I decided to get gas this morning @ 2.39. But wow, look at the strength in the U.S. dollar suddenly!
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Dec 17, 2009 1:34:50 PM
The Speedway spike today is $2.559. The Michigan average before this was $2.494, making this one of the lowest spikes I have seen for Michigan at 6.5 cents.
This is after a long decline in prices, 10 cents since the last spike, and a spike up in the wholesale average of 5 cents since last Thursday. Looking at one or two days of stats to not justify a price increase doesn't really work, now does it?
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jmktigers
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Message Posted: Dec 17, 2009 11:34:31 AM
Please keep discussion in this topic to the prediction of gas prices - spikes or downward trends or stagnancy. I would hate to see this topic locked by the moderators. Although we may have some inside help in preventing this ;-)
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ELHondaVan
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Message Posted: Dec 17, 2009 10:25:58 AM
I won't extend the discussion of credit card fees. I appreciate the comments (thoughtful and otherwise). And maybe my remarks are a little harsh to "Mom and Pop" stations, but I, indeed, don't see many of those where I live. (When I go north in the summer, I make a point of supporting the only station near me, which doesn't have pay at the pump, rather than driving 5 miles the other way to pay less). I'm most annoyed at poor journalism (passing along blatant PR statements with no research or questioning).
And, today, I'm annoyed that Speedway has raised the price 15 cents when the market seems to have gone back down after spiking only a few cents on the DOE report. Looks like a last-minute shopper's tax to me.
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pdhaudio
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Message Posted: Dec 17, 2009 9:22:08 AM
Speedway has reset to $2.55 today in Michigan and Indiana ($2.59 in NW Indiana), $2.59 in Ohio
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pdhaudio
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Message Posted: Dec 16, 2009 5:16:34 PM
EL, even if at my old job, we had to reconcile credit card payments at the end of everyday. Sure it was a touch easier to do, but we still stayed 30 minutes after close whether I had 5k in cash with 1k in credit or 1k in cash and 5k in credit. So while I suppose cash costs production, and therefore money, I think you might be overstating it.
I'm just saying that taking cash is an indirect cost of business (you don't bill yourself for taking cash) while credit card fees are a direct cost of business (you get billed for fees each month). You already have the manpower in place to close the business and reconcile purchases and the need for that will likely never go away. So while credit card is a direct ~3% of sales, cash is an indirect 0.2% of sales.
Also, if your margin averaged 1-2% of a product's price (like gasoline in many areas) and if your bottom line would be to take in 97% of the product's cost (lose money), could you stay in business?
Sure gas stations are making money elsewhere, but how many businesses make next to nothing or lose money on their main product? Gas stations are one business that can't raise the price of the product without it being known by everyone, even people who don't do business there. It's almost too easy for consumers to shop around for a gasoline station. This makes business much harder for them, and is the reason why you see a lot of smaller stations/chains going out of business.
The 3% is more or less whining because stations have little choice on accepting credit. Retailers aren't solely in business to serve their customers, they must make a profit first and foremost. Without a profit, there won't be a business. Unfortunately, not every gas station has the power to turn credit cards into an advantage, either.
Anyway, I don't even know what the point of the discussion is anymore. To add a percentage to your formulas? You should- at every point the gas stations are trying to recoup that credit card fee.
[Edited by: pdhaudio at 12/16/2009 5:18:32 PM EST]
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ELHondaVan
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Message Posted: Dec 16, 2009 9:49:12 AM
My experience as Treasurer of a youth soccer group was that credit card fees were about 1.5% (including per transaction and varying percentages), and we had our money in the merchant account overnight earning interest the next day. It was far better and faster than accepting cash and certainly less risky than checks. Debit cards are often fixed rate (per transaction) so a percent depends on size of transaction.
When credit (or debit) card costs are discussed, it is always as if the costs are in ADDITION to the cost of cash. But, PROCESSING CASH COSTS MONEY, TOO! This is what is often left out of the equation. It is not as easy to quantify, but it is definitely a cost. It takes people and time to count, package, and deliver to the bank. Change has to be maintained. Security and loss is an issue. Labor costs are usually a significant cost in any business. And card systems have a higher velocity than cash. This means money in the bank sooner (sometimes instantly) for the merchant, and this is an opportunity to reduce the cost of money overall by earning interest to offset fees. If credit cards cost "3%", maybe cash processing costs "5%" (a number that is just as defensible, IMHO). It's all public relations.
Figuring costs is a complicated problem. I don't mean to sound too dismissive, but the 3% claim seems like whining to me. Retailers should serve their customers, not fight against them, and seek ways to turn it to their advantage. I only support stations that provide pay at the pump and don't discriminate against one customer over another. They run their businesses effectively and efficiently and fairly for all.
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Ed A
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Message Posted: Dec 15, 2009 3:36:41 PM
From our web site: The Gas Game
Comment on the December 8 prediction: No price hike, yes blizzard (a day later than the weather people said). CORRECT.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009, 3:40PM: I've got the 0-cent margin price at around $2.33 today, based on NYMEX and Chicago prices, and gas is $2.38 in Wyoming this afternoon. But, prices are still above $2.50 in select places around town, so what is going to happen? My prediction is a price re-set on Wednesday or Thursday to somewhere near $2.52, which won't be a hike for certain gas stations.
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pdhaudio
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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2009 2:06:13 PM
EL- I've talked with people in the industry, and fees can get ugly. They range in number, with the highest volume stations having lower fees. Mom and pop stations can indeed have fees that approach 3%. However you put it, for a normal station selling 2000-5000 gallons a day, this could mean credit card fees eat $30,000-$50,000 each year, hardly a drop in the bucket, and high enough that it easily is cheaper to have a human complete sales or do the math at the end of a day.
And EL, you state its misinformation, but you don't lay out any facts on fees? Yeah credit cards are a cost of doing business, but as the saying goes, there's no such thing as a free lunch... the only decent way to fight credit card fees while still accepting them are for the chain or oil company to negotiate a way to have fees reduced with their own credit card- this is why Speedway constantly had 5c/gal off with their credit card- to entice motorists to sign up for one, and Speedway in turn would save a lot of money on processing, etc, in addition to getting a kick of some of the profits.
My dad runs a franchise of restaurants in West Michigan, and I spoke to him about this issue just now. After all the math is calculated, his fee is quite close to 3%. This based on millions of dollars of sales yearly. My dad also tells me that fees can be different even within Visa, for example. Some Visa cards cost more for the business to take. The fee is negotiable, but as my dad noted, they switch processors on occasion to take advantage of a temporarily lower rate. The restaurants are basically charged 2.5%-3% of the sale if using a credit card. By the way, he's gone through at least three banks that I can remember, with local banks often charging less, but he's still near 3%.
[Edited by: pdhaudio at 12/11/2009 2:09:47 PM EST]
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2009 11:31:42 AM
I am not saying there should be a difference between cash and credit, I'm just saying there is a fee charged when you use a credit card, and 2-3% is usually what is quoted. I also know it costs money to handle money, my wife works at a credit union. It all just goes to prove we need to add some sort of cost to our figures.
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ELHondaVan
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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2009 8:19:30 AM
The widespread misinformation of 2-3% credit card fees just shows the sad state of journalism and the power of the repeated big lie by marketers and public relations and advertisers. Yes, there is a cost for credit cards, but there is also a cost for cash handling, too!! Or for checks. It costs money to manage money. Ask a bank about business bank account fees sometime! All of these are a cost of doing business, and can be managed by a well-run operation to the benefit of the business. The customer should not be blamed or penalized for choosing what is best for them: credit, debit, cash, or even the (rapidly disappearing) check.
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ServeGod
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Message Posted: Dec 10, 2009 5:26:15 PM
My local stations have been stuck at $2.56 for like 5 days.
But current factors mean I should see $2.45 soon, if not $2.39.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Dec 10, 2009 8:30:08 AM
I don't know about the 2-3% credit card fee being a myth. In every article I read on the subject I get the same thing. Whether it be gas stations or Wal*Mart and Target it's always been the same.
I agree on needing more information on costs, but will you agree that we at least need add in some cost?
[Edited by: Paxman356 at 12/10/2009 8:31:53 EST]
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ELHondaVan
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Message Posted: Dec 10, 2009 7:38:42 AM
Don't get me started on credit card fees!! That is the biggest myth. 2-3% is ABSURD! Get a new bank or a new merchant contract. And, how much do you pay a cashier to count the cash and prepare a deposit and take it to the bank??? It's all a cost of doing business. And for some, credit sales are CHEAPER than cash, when you look at total costs and benefits, including interest earned on faster money flow.
</ end rant>
Overall, I think we need much better info than we have on all the add on costs. And it is probably quite variable, so we need a mythical typical average, too.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Dec 9, 2009 10:10:57 PM
One of the reasons NYMEX went down the Friday after Thanksgiving is because it was ending it's November cycle on Monday and was in sell off mode. Chicago was closed, and had just spiked up 5 cents the day before Thanksgiving.
So, Chicago was at $1.93, RBOB at $1.99 on Wednesday. Michigan's sales tax would be 12.684 cents ((1.93+18.4)x.06), State and Federal would be 37.4, there is also a 1 cent environmental charge. That's 51.084 cents just on taxes.
So with Chicago wholesale and taxes alone, stations would be paying $2.44. When you say at $2.65 they have a 20 cent profit, it doesn't count credit card fees, electricity, pump inspection, employee wages, rent, and freight, just to name a few. We know they make a killing on the c-store side, but we also know on gas they barely make a profit at times. The credit card fee alone on $2.65 gas is 5-7 cents (2-3%). I think the 13 cents I add for freight and costs, while generous, is pretty close to what goes on in the real world.
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ELHondaVan
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Message Posted: Dec 9, 2009 1:21:39 PM
@SG I use a percentage (10%) for mark up / profit, not a fixed amount. At the $2.65 price just after Thanksgiving, the profit was already at least 20 cents. A price of 2.69+ would have been an excessive (in my opinion) profit. But you are right, it would not be unheard of from Speedway. I still think there is some push back from competition, especially from Admiral in Lansing.
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ServeGod
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Message Posted: Dec 9, 2009 10:41:49 AM
ELH,
Bill & Ed captured all the factors I was using to believe it was a little low with more wiggle room. They certainly aren't using their 25 to 30 cent margins they had been using, either.
Even with your factors, a high of $2.65 was at least the upper reach apparent at the time, though I was thinking $2.69+ for factors Bill mentioned, and they rarely look for little profit when they can justify more.
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Ed A
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Message Posted: Dec 8, 2009 8:33:02 PM
From our web site: The Gas Game
Comment on the December 1 prediction: Prices re-set on Friday (CORRECT), but only to $2.59 (WRONG).
Tuesday, December 8, 2009, 8:30PM: The only reason to fill up tomorrow is because of the predicted blizzard you’ve probably heard about. Wholesale prices have been slipping all week, so a price hike is unlikely, and I predict lower prices through Monday. — Ed Aboufadel
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Ed A
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Message Posted: Dec 1, 2009 3:05:50 PM
From our web site: The Gas Game
Comment on the November 16 prediction: Prices rose the next day to $2.65, so the prediction was CORRECT.
Tuesday, December 1, 2009, 3:00PM: My frequency of postings has dropped to twice a month this fall, so I will try to get back to the weekly postings that are my goal. What’s going on today? We had a hike on Friday to $2.59, except along Lake Michigan Drive, where prices were at $2.61, and remain there. It hurts that Citgo and Rich are closed. This afternoon, there are still a lot of $2.59’s, but gas is $2.40 in Lowell. After a drop in wholesale prices last week, those prices are climbing this week, and I forsee a hike to around $2.69 by the end of the week. That’s a prediction. What is troubling is that prices are usually the lowest of the year in December, so unless we get a big drop soon, we could be in trouble in February.
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ELHondaVan
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Message Posted: Nov 29, 2009 12:18:23 PM
Thanks for the reply, Bill. I was more directing my bewilderment to ServeGod. The weakness of the jump is shown here in Lansing, by the drop of Speedway at their flagship (highest volume) station near the Frandor shopping center, just off US127, to 2.34. All the Admirals held firm and made them compete. Of course, pretty much all the rest of the Lansing area Speedways are still at 2.59.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Nov 28, 2009 9:01:06 AM
For me, since Chicago has been down since Wednesday, I am going by the Wednesday close, which shot up 7.5 cents to $1.9338. The taxes and fees alone of 52.11 cents make that $2.4549, and I add 8 cents to that for other expenses to make it $2.5349, which is what I call my spike line, because when it is crossed, it usually means spike. While the Michigan average never made it below $2.55, the Speedway Michigan average (which doesn't include the more expensive UP) was at $2.52 on Wednesday. They were below the spike line, and ripe for a spike.
It was a rather weak spike, too. Kinda odd if you ask me.
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ELHondaVan
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Message Posted: Nov 28, 2009 8:27:29 AM
How are you calculating the price & profit?!? The wholesale market went DOWN on Friday.
My formula says a range of 2.459-2.654, based on NYMEX price, and lower based on Chicago. And wholesale was pretty much trending down, down, down all week.
Looks to me like Speedway just capturing a "turkey tax" on travelers going home.
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ServeGod
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Message Posted: Nov 27, 2009 10:34:11 PM
Today's $2.59 brought a correct on the hike, but wrong on the price; their undershoot on the profit reset gives them leeway for a hike again in a few days.
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FordEscort
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Message Posted: Nov 27, 2009 3:21:33 PM
Looks like most speedways went to $2.59/gal friday afternoon.
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pdhaudio
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Message Posted: Nov 26, 2009 7:38:49 PM
It's a good debate where prices will go, but I firmly believe that prices will be slightly higher this Christmas. For GR, I'd say $2.65-$2.79.
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ServeGod
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Message Posted: Nov 25, 2009 9:58:27 PM
Might stay down for Thursday day but has a good chance of readjusting to $2.69-$2.74 on Friday or early next week.
That should be our last high point however, as the overall picture for December should be lower prices. We should see most of December settling back to probably $2.29 - $2.49, with possibility of even lower by end of 2009.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Nov 25, 2009 10:35:12 AM
A news report out of Cincy. They are just saying what we knew all along.
Except that the price of oil does not set the price of gas in the area. That and they say the price of oil went down, but at the closing bell it actually went up. From 11/9 to 11/17 the price of wholesale (at the Chicago Mercantile) went up 10 cents, Cincy's average fell 13 cents. This spike up only drove the average up 22 cents.
Interesting, and I never thought about it before, but Speedway may be putting their stations away from competition. Pretty clever if you ask me.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Nov 20, 2009 12:00:38 AM
I see the numbers as being very friendly... over 10 cents margins. Prices should fall through the weekend unless something drastic happens tomorrow.
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Angry_Consumer
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Message Posted: Nov 18, 2009 8:58:04 PM
Why do I get the feeling it may be an early "Christmas present" as well.
Bah! Humbug!
[Edited by: Angry_Consumer at 11/18/2009 8:58:27 PM EST]
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Sue402001
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Message Posted: Nov 18, 2009 4:30:46 PM
Gee, just in time for Thanksgiving!
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ServeGod
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Message Posted: Nov 18, 2009 9:34:15 AM
Spot on, Ed - good CORRECT predict with yesterday's $2.65.
Unfortunately the #'s are there that if the market stays up over the next few days we could see a Friday hike or an early next week hike to $2.74.
[Edited by: ServeGod at 11/18/2009 9:39:45 AM EST]
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vando45
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Message Posted: Nov 17, 2009 10:38:06 AM
Speedway's website shows that station at $2.65 now.
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mgmcam
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Message Posted: Nov 17, 2009 9:52:12 AM
Unfortunately Pat and Ed are correct but maybe a little conservative in their prediction. Speedway aka greedway opened the bidding on new higher prices at $2.75 seen at 3 Mile & Alpine this AM.
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Ed A
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Message Posted: Nov 16, 2009 2:49:25 PM
From our web site: The Gas Game
Comment on the November 1 prediction: Our last price hike was October 27, and prices have been falling slowly but surely since, with $2.39 in Lowell. The prediction was CORRECT.
Monday, November 16, 2009, 2:45pm: With Citgo and Rich out of business in Standale, that area of town has become the high-price leader. It has made it harder for me to monitor the situation. Today, for instance, with NYMEX prices higher, the 20-cent margin price is in the $2.70 to $2.75 range, and prices are $2.59 in Standale. Monitoring prices elsewhere in time either requires more driving by me or regular trip to GasBuddy, so I'm not as in tune with things as I have been in the past. If prices were below $2.50 in Standale, like they are elsewhere in town, I'd be predicting a price hike without a sweat. Instead, I have to take some more readings, and I will conclude that a price hike is on its way, maybe tomorrow already. $2.65?
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jmktigers
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Message Posted: Nov 11, 2009 12:45:05 PM
Oh, so those selling at $2.69 are making a killing!
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pdhaudio
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Message Posted: Nov 10, 2009 5:22:40 PM
They aren't losing much, Chicago Spot pricing is dirt cheap! $1.85 compared to 1.96 or so for everyone else.
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jmktigers
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Message Posted: Nov 10, 2009 3:28:44 PM
No hurricane effect in Lowell. How much are these stations losing per gallon by selling at $2.39 today? How long can it last?
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Browncoat1
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Message Posted: Nov 9, 2009 12:09:42 AM
Hurricane Ida is heading into the Gulf, making a course for the US coast.
Whether or not there is any damage, I'm sure the oil companies will use it as an excuse to raise prices.
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